This article has the main objective Global Acceptance Society (NASDAQ: WRLD).
Investment Portfolio Discipline Summary
“Blockdesk’s Standard Performance Comparison Fund invests in stocks whenever market maker hedging activity predicts 80% or more of the stock to come the price range should be up and 10% or less can be down. It is a guide to the balance of expectations, as the directions of future price changes tend to be led by past extremes, issue by issue.
At the time of each purchase, a GTC sell order for all the shares just purchased is placed with the broker where they were purchased. His system will monitor and direct you to the sale confirmation once completed, possibly with incentives for reinvestment.
At time of purchase, only on your personal private calendar 3 months after purchase, take note to review this outfit. If it is not yet sold, but at a loss, sell and put the product in the reinvestment stream. If you win, after considering alternatives, decide to sell or move the calendar note one month further”
Description of the lead investment applicant
“World Acceptance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the small loan consumer finance business. The Company offers short-term, small-payment loans, medium-term, larger-payment loans, related credit insurance, and ancillary products and services to individuals. It also provides automobile club memberships to its borrowers; and electronic tax return preparation and filing services. As of March 31, 2022, it operated 1,167 branches in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin. World Acceptance Corporation was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Greenville, South Carolina.
Source: Yahoo Finance
These growth estimates were made by and are gathered from Wall Street analysts to suggest what conventional methodology is currently producing. Here, there was no analyst coverage. The typical variations between forecast horizons of different time periods illustrate the difficulty of making value comparisons when the forecast horizon is not clearly defined.
Balance of risk and reward among WRLD competitors
Here are several consumer credit providers like WRLD, but few on current interest. Following the same analysis as with WRLD, a historical sampling of their prior risk-reward balances like today’s was taken and is mapped in Figure 1.
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The expected rewards for these stocks are the largest gains over the current market close price, which are worth protecting MM short positions. Their measurement is on the horizontal green scale.
The risk dimension is that of actual price declines at their most extreme while being held in the previous pursuit of upward rewards similar to those currently seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale.
Both scales are percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose current risk exposure exceeds its reward outlook will be above the dotted diagonal line. The attractive buying capital gain issues are found in the down and right directions.
Our primary interest is in WRLD at the location . A standard “market index” of reward~risk trade-offs is offered by SPY at . Most attractive (to own) by this Figure 1 the view is WRLD .
Comparison of characteristics of alternative investment stocks
The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every short-term stock investment. There are other aspects of comparison that this chart sometimes doesn’t communicate well, especially when broad market outlooks like SPY’s are involved. Where questions of “probability” are present, other comparative tables, such as Figure 2can be useful.
Yellow highlighting of table cells emphasizes factors important to security valuations and security WRLD, most promising near capital gain ranked in column [R].
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Why do all these calculations?
The purpose of Figure 2 is to attempt universally comparable, stock-by-stock answers of a) HOW SIGNIFICANT the potential price gain might be, b) how LIKELY the gain will be a profitable experience, c ) how quickly this may happen, and d) what RISK of a price drop may be encountered during its holding period.
Readers familiar with our analytical methods after a quick review of Figure 2 you may wish to skip to the next section Price Range Prediction Trends for WRLD.
The column headers in Figure 2 define the investment choice preference items for each row stock whose symbol appears to the left in the column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, depending on the specifics of its situation and the current forecast of the MM price range. Data in red numbers is negative, usually undesirable for “long” positions. Table cells with yellow fills contain data for stocks of primary interest and all issues in the ranking column, [R].
Column price range prediction limits [B] and [C] be defined by MM’s hedging actions to protect the firm’s capital which must be exposed to the risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by large $”institutional” clients.
[E] measures the potential upside risks for the short MM positions created to fill these orders and rewards the potentials for the buy positions thus created. Past forecasts like this provide a history of pertinent risk of lower prices for buyers. The most severe actually encountered are found in [F]during the periods of maintenance in the effort to reach [E] earnings. This is where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses.
The range index [G] indicates where today’s price stands in relation to the MM community’s predictions of the upper and lower bounds of future prices. Its figure is the percentage proportion of the full forecast low to high view below the current market price.
[H] indicates what proportion of the [L] sample of prior the same-equilibrium forecast earned gains either by causing the price to reach its [B] target or be above sound [D] cost of entry at the end of a maximum holding period limit of 3 months. [I] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences.
What makes WRLD most attractive in the group at this stage is their high proportion of profitable results – better than 3 out of 4, and their high prior upside prospects, higher than most offered in [E]. Previous prospects in the competition had similar opportunities, but as evidenced now in [I]weren’t as successful as WRLD.
Other reward-risk trade-offs involve the use of [H] win odds with loss odds 100 – H as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F]for a combined yield score [Q]. The typical job retention period [J] on [Q] provides a symbol of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preference. Figure 2 is arranged by row on [R] among the alternative title candidates, with WRLD at the top.
In addition to candidate-specific stocks, these selection considerations are provided for the averages of over 3,000 stocks for which MM price range predictions are available today, and 20 of the top-ranked (per of) of these forecasts, as well as the forecast for the S&P500 Index ETF (SPY) as a proxy for the stock market.
The current market SPY index is not competitive as an investment alternative, as indicated by its range index of 38. While 2/3 of its forecast range is up, less than 3/4 of previous SPY forecasts at this range index have produced profitable results, with enough losers to put its average into a positive single-digit result, much like many of the competitors.
As shown in column [T] in Figure 2, these reward-to-risk levels vary significantly from stock to stock. What counts is the net result between the investment gains and losses actually realized following the forecasts, indicated in the column [I]. The odds of winning [H] indicates what proportion of the sample IRs of each stock was profitable. Ratings below 80% have often proven to be unreliable.
Price Range Prediction Trends for WRLD
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No it is not a “technical analysis chart” showing historical data only. This is a real-time stock behavior analysis image of the Market-Making community in the investment coverage of the topic. These actions define expected price change limits overnight, as indicated by vertical bars with a thick dot at the closing price on the forecast date.
This is a real picture of future prices expected by experienced market professionals, not just a hope for a recurrence of the past. These expectations are supported by large investment capital bets made to protect market makers or gain exclusive profit from risk taking.
The particular value of these images is their ability to immediately communicate the balance of expectant attitudes between optimism and pessimism. We quantify this balance by calculating how much of the price range uncertainty lies on the downside, between the current market price and the expected lower bound, called the range index [RI].
In the case of WRLD, the rising expectations of probable future prices offer encouragement to revisit past history, as the range index is not much high.
Here, an RI of 32 indicates twice as much upward price change as a downward move is likely, but not guaranteed. The chances that 3 months will pass without reaching or exceeding the upper forecast limit or being at that time below the lower expected price (today) are quite low.
The probability function of price changes for WRLD is shown by the lower (vignette) frequency distribution in Figure 3 of RI values for the past 2+ years with the current value shown. There, the bulk of the experiments have been in the upper IR ratings.
The multi-path valuations explored by the analysis covered in Figure 2 are a rich testament to the benefit of the near-future value perspective of a current investment in Global Acceptance Society beyond the other alternative investment candidates compared.